COGNIT
3316
S0010-0277(16)30224-4
10.1016/j.cognition.2016.09.009
The Author(s)
Original Articles
Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics
Masasi
Hattori
⁎
hat@lt.ritsumei.ac.jp
College of Comprehensive Psychology, Ritsumeikan University, Japan
College of Comprehensive Psychology
Ritsumeikan University
Japan
⁎
Address: College of Comprehensive Psychology, Ritsumeikan University, 2-150 Iwakura-cho, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-8570, Japan.
College of Comprehensive Psychology
Ritsumeikan University
2-150 Iwakura-cho
Ibaraki
Osaka
567-8570
Japan
Graphical abstract
Highlights
•
A new theory of syllogistic reasoning based on mental representations is proposed.
•
The model successfully predicts the pattern of answers for each syllogism.
•
The theory integrates several extant approaches and ideas of reasoning and memory.
•
It reveals that people equate the probability of target categories in syllogisms.
•
Deduction is more relevant to other types of cognition than previously thought.
Abstract
This paper presents a new theory of syllogistic reasoning. The proposed model assumes there are probabilistic representations of given signature situations. Instead of conducting an exhaustive search, the model constructs an individual-based “logical” mental representation that expresses the most probable state of affairs, and derives a necessary conclusion that is not inconsistent with the model using heuristics based on informativeness. The model is a unification of previous influential models. Its descriptive validity has been evaluated against existing empirical data and two new experiments, and by qualitative analyses based on previous empirical findings, all of which supported the theory. The model’s behavior is also consistent with findings in other areas, including working memory capacity. The results indicate that people assume the probabilities of all target events mentioned in a syllogism to be almost equal, which suggests links between syllogistic reasoning and other areas of cognition.
Keywords
Deduction
Probabilistic inference
Syllogistic reasoning
Mental representation
Information gain
Symmetry inference
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10.1016/j.cognition.2016.09.009
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2016-10-03T17:28:46Z
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